1. Cole Hamels, LHSP, CLW, Age 20Acquired in the first round (pick #17 overall) of the 2002 draft.
Evaluation: Hamels sparkled in spring training, but apparently overthrew versus the Yankees and has been suffering from elbow soreness since. His performance is so dominant that one can overlook injuries to a certain extent, but one more major injury (he was also hurt last year, and broke his arm somewhat famously in HS) puts his future in jeopardy, and would force his downgrade as a prospect. Throws 95 mph heat, good curve, tremendous change-up.
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Arbuckle after his first start this year--"Cole just walked in like he hadn't missed a beat," said Arbuckle, who took a very cautious approach with Hamels after the 21-year-old experienced mild elbow soreness in early April. "If does that over the long haul, then we've got to think of [moving him to Reading]," Arbuckle said.
Gordon Heimuller's (Minor league pitching coordinator) 2003 scouting report--"Cole signed late last year, then went to [Florida] Instructional League and came up a little tender, so we started him out in extended spring training. We decided to let him dictate where he'd go, and he's been good enough that now we need to challenge him a little bit. His last few starts have been very good. He's got a real good fastball that's 91, 92 [mph], a very, very good change and a very good curve. And he's a good kid who's receptive to teaching. We're trying to change his delivery a little bit, and he's been great about it."
Buddy Biancalana (Lakewood manager) in 2003--"Cole would win some games in the big leagues right now," said BlueClaws manager Buddy Biancalana, who played six seasons with the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros. "I'm not saying he belongs in the big leagues, but he'd win some games there in my opinion."
Arbuckle again--"He's not a kid you look at and say, 'Well, we've got to change this and change that,' " he said. "With him, he just needs innings and experience. As long as we can just keep him on the same channel he's on and give him those innings, he'll be fine. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's kind of the way he is. There's not a lot there we need to alter. It's just a matter of the innings and continuing to develop command and things like that."
2. Gavin Floyd, RHSP, Reading, Age 21Acquired in the first round (#4 pick overall) of the 2001 draft (below is his HS picture).
Evaluation: Floyd is apparently healthy this year, and pitching effectively in Reading (though without much run support from his otherwise potent teammates). He's reportedly still working on spotting his fastball and throwing his nearly unhittable curveball for strikes. In my opinion he projects as a #2/#3 starter because his K-rate is not what you'd like for a #1 starter, but he's still a stud prospect, clearly in the top 50 in all the minor leagues. Throws 92-94 mph fastball, curve, developing change-up.
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Arbuckle and heimuller in 2003, on Floyd's early struggles--"Gavin was trying to copy Millwood and slowed down too much," Arbuckle said. With a slower delivery, Floyd was 1-3 with a 5.19 ERA over his first five starts. Since, Floyd is 5-2 with a 1.71 over nine outings. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six games and now is second in the league in strikeouts (77) and fifth in ERA. "We shortened his stride a little bit, and now Gavin is coming over his head with his arms to get a little more rhythm," minor-league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller said. "He's made a lot of improvements. He's throwing more curveballs for strikes, too."
Rotoworld on Floyd last year--"Floyd, the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, came in at No. 17 in the preseason Top 100 Prospects and will move up further in the midseason update coming next week. After a slow start to his season, the 20-year-old right-hander is back putting up outstanding numbers, posting a 2.56 ERA for Single-A Clearwater. He's given up 91 hits and five homers and has an 89/35 K/BB ratio in 102 innings.
Floyd is rather similar to Brett Myers , who has emerged as a quality starter for the Phillies this season. Like Myers, his fastball can be fired anywhere in the 90-95 mph range and he has a curve and a decent change. Myers has the slightly better fastball and superior control. However, Floyd's curve pretty much negates that advantage. It's one of the best breaking pitches found anywhere in the minors, maybe the best.
He's capable of forcing his way to the majors, much like Dontrelle Willis has."
Arbuckle on Floyd's track to the big leagues this year--"I think Gavin can go from Double-A to the big leagues as easily he could go from Triple-A to the big leagues," Arbuckle said. "Hitters need to see those experienced Triple-A pitchers who can change speeds and locate. But if a pitcher is changing speeds and locating in Double-A, I think he can do it in Triple-A or against big-league hitters." Even after Friday's outing, Floyd has good numbers, allowing 26 hits in 33 innings while fanning 26 and walking 13. "Gavin has just continued what we saw from him in spring training, which was very good," Arbuckle said. "He came to camp a lot stronger and is more mature all around."
3. Jake Blalock, Corner OF, Lakewood, Age 21Acquired in the fifth round (#174 pick overall) of the 2002 draft
Evaluation: After crushing the ball in minor-league spring training, Jake (Hank's brother, of course) is fashioning a break-out year for a player who had shown decent power but little else in short-season ball. As of this writing Blalock has posted a .920 OPS in one of the most difficult offensive parks in all of minor league baseball. His defensive play in LF is improved--he's tall, deceptively fast once he's underway, and has a strong arm. Rates ahead of Ryan Howard due to age-appropriate acomplishment--he's almost two years younger for his level than Howard is.
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Arbuckle--"Jake certainly has a chance to be a good, big-league power hitter," Arbuckle said. "The strength is there. You see it in batting practice when he hits balls as far as anybody." A high school teammate of Hamels in suburban San Diego, Blalock was a fifth-round pick the same year (2002) due to his size (6-4, 215) and tremendous power potential. But over his first two pro seasons, he was slow to develop and hit just six homers in 97 games. This season, he equaled that in 40 games. "Jake's still learning how to hit," Arbuckle said, referring to Blalock's 39 whiffs in 139 at-bats. "When he stays on the ball, he can hit balls as far as anybody. It's a learning process with a young hitter." Arbuckle doubts Blalock will move up to Clearwater at any point this season. "I think Jake needs a year in that league," he said.
4. Ryan Howard, 1B (not OF!--yet), Reading, Age 24Acquired in the fifth round (#140 overall) of the 2001 draft.
Evaluation: Howard is having the type of minor league season that's very hard to evaluate--posting historic numbers, but in a hitter's park at a year above the normal age-level limit for a prospect. The photo above shows him in his new Charlie-Manuel-inspired/Jim-Thome-like stance, which seems to have resulted in fewer K's and better production. Howard is a fit, well-conditioned athlete who probably could move to the OF if pushed by the Phils, but now appears blocked at first base by #25 in Philly and a reluctance to experiment by the organization. He's showing better strike-zone control and plate discipling lately, especially versus breaking pitches, and very few of his homeruns travel less than about 400 feet, so the small dimensions in Reading don't play too much of a role in his HR production.
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Arbuckle on the Howard/Thome dilemma--I think something like this has to play out,” Arbuckle said. “It can be a tough situation for a player, but it can be a very positive situation for the club. And I don’t think you’re a good, competitive organization until you start developing these types of situations.”
Arbuckle also is not alone in the organization in his assessment that the 6-4, 230-pound Howard is best suited for first base.
“No, we haven’t talked about him playing somewhere else because I think his skills lend themselves to first base,” he said. “If we had openings in the outfield I’d say we’d be more apt to try it. I look at our club and we’ve got (Pat) Burrell in left and (Bobby) Abreu in right, so I don’t know that we enhance his big-league opportunity by moving him.”
Greg Legg (Reading Manager)--“He’s probably the best power-hitting prospect that I’ve ever got to manage,” said Reading manager Greg Legg. “This park can’t hold him. Now he’s close to hitting .300, and that makes it even spookier.
“He’s getting much more quality at-bats (lately). He’s been laying off some breaking balls down, and he’s actually hit some breaking balls out of the park lately. He’s coming on as a hitter, and the biggest thing that I’ve seen is that the league adjusted to him early there for a stretch, and now he’s adjusted back to the league. Hitting at the higher levels is about adjustments, and he’s doing it.”
5. Anderson Machado, SS, Reading, Age 23Aquired as an undrafted free agent (international--Venezuela)
Evaluation: In the time he's been with the Phils, the only question about Machado was whether he could produce offensively since he's been considered a spectacular defender from the time he was signed. He had a nice season in Reading in 2002, but regressed when plagued with family troubles in 2003. Now, in SWB, as a 23-year-old, he's posting his best offensive numbers yet, despite still being asked to switch-hit by the Phils and having very poor results right handed. Again, though, he's blocked by a productive major leaguer in Philly. Imagine if Rollins were not on the team how much hype his +800 OPS season would be generating. I think he's been around so long people are underrating him. One of the best bunters in all of baseball and a great base-stealer, his production this year has been slowed by an appendectomy in March.
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Arbuckle this spring--"Defensively, he can make major league plays," Arbuckle said. "He just needs to be more patient at the plate."
Arbuckle last spring--"Machado had a good season last year at Reading (.251, 12 HR, 77 RBIs, 28 errors), but we’re keeping him there because we want him to adjust his swing," Arbuckle said. "He hits too many fly balls. He’s not going to be a home run guy. He’s an excellent defensive player who has a chance to be a well-above average, major-league shortstop. He can really run and does a lot of things well."
Arbuckle again last spring--Machado is a natural righthanded hitter, but he feels more comfortable from the left side. In fact, last year he tried to give up switch-hitting and bat lefthanded only. The organization wouldn't let him.
"I think it's an advantage for him to switch-hit," Arbuckle said. "Whenever a player struggles, there's a temptation to make a drastic change. But you've got to look long-range. Sometimes we can do that better than the player. Maybe down the line we'd make a change, but now [switch-hitting] is worth sticking with."
While Machado says he needs to improve his hitting from the right side of the plate, Arbuckle would like to see more consistency lefthanded.
"His swing can get a little loopy from the left side," Arbuckle said. "He lifts too many balls. He's got just enough power to hit some home runs in [Reading's] park, but when he gets into bigger parks, they'll be routine fly balls.
"We want the arc of his bat moving downward. We want him to hit the ball on the ground and use his legs. His 60-yard dash time is 6.5 seconds, so he can fly."
Minor league director of operations Steve Noworyta--"He's a big-league defensive player," Noworyta said. "And he's starting to hit. His stroke is noticeably shorter from both sides of the plate. I saw him three games and he was hitting bullets everywhere. He looks like he's having a lot of fun out there," Noworyta said. "It's good to see."
Finally, Bowa--"He's got all the tools - athleticism, instincts, speed, arm - to be a big-leaguer," said Phils manager Larry Bowa, who watched Machado closely in spring training. "He just needs consistency making routine plays."
6. Michael Bourn, CF, Lakewood, Age 21Acquired in the 4th round (#144 overall) of the 2003 draft (Cape Cod League photo below)
Evaluation: Bourne is still relatively young for low A ball, is posting a +.400 OBP, is slugging way higher than expected, and at one time (prior to hamstring woes) was stealing bases at an almost historic clip. Most teams would have Bourn in high A ball by now, and he seems to be a weaker defender than Moran, but those are small nits to pick about a very promising prospect. He's the very definition of a leadoff hitter. Good bunter, nice left-handed slapping-type swing.
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Arbuckle on Bourn and Moran's speed--Arbuckle says that Bourn and Moran have been rotating at CF and are getting used to all 3 OF spots to possibly land a job as a 4th outfielder in the majors, and he says that "it would be fun to watch those kids in a 60-yard dash"
Arbuckle--"I like both Bourn and Moran. We see the speed, the potential with the bat and both can really play center."
Arbuckle on Bourn, Moran, and Moss pre-season--"We're going to run like heck in Lakewood," Arbuckle said. "Legs are a huge tool for all three guys. We want it to be part of the learning process from Day 1 - taking the extra base, stealing. We want that mentality all the way through the system for these guys.
Bill Dancy (minor league coordinator) regarding Bourn, Moss, and Moran--"There's going to be some rabbits (in Lakewood), guys who can do some damage on the basepaths," Dancy said.
Arbuckle again--"Time will tell whether [Bourn has] an inclination to hit leadoff, to take pitches, have a feel for that part of it," said Mike Arbuckle.
JE game report--"Watching these two bat back-to-back, it's pretty easy to compare the two hitting styles. Bourn definately has a plan when he goes to the plate. He seems much more than willing to make the pitcher work and doesn't seem afraid to take a strike or two. Extremely patient hitter, he clearly favors hitting the ball to the opposite field and using his speed. In one particularly impressive at-bat against a tough side-arming lefty, Bourn hung in tough and drilled a double to left center. Moran, on the other hand, is much more aggressive and lacks Bourn's patience. I couldn't help to think of Doug Glanville when I saw Moran bat. He's stronger than Bourn and drove the ball better. He seems to be the better athlete and defensive player of the two, but Bourn's better acceptance of the fact that his job is to get on base whichever way he can, I think, will allow him to make a more lasting impact as a leadoff hitter at the major league level. I have no doubt that Moran can play in the major leagues on his defense alone. One thing for sure, it is really fun to watch these two guys run, especially when their both on base."
7. Chris Roberson, CF, CLW, Age 24Acquired in the 9th round (#260 overall) in the 2001 draft
Evaluation: Chris has been progressing a level at a time (love those aggressive Philly promotion policies) since being drafted out of Feather River JC in 2001, posting good OBP's and stealing lots of bases (59 last year). This year he has begun to hit with some power, and has put together an impressive streak in May an June, hitting .355, posting a 25-game hitting streak, and slugging .550 over the two months (in the big FSL parks). He was also named MVP of the FSL all-star game. At age 24 (almost 25) he needs to be promoted to AA soon. Arbuckle has said he needs to work on his defense and fielding n CLW, but seems akin to Arbuckle's quote saying Machado needs to show more patience.
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Arbuckle on his play this year--"He's really taken off," Arbuckle said. "He's making better contact and driving the ball. And he's a double-plus runner."
Arbuckle again-"He's made great strides making contact," assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle said. "He's right on everything."
Arbuckle on the Phils reasons for drafting him--"He was one of those guys we like to take a stab at," Arbuckle said of Roberson. "He hadn't played a ton of baseball. He was slow to come around at first, but we assumed that would be the case when we signed him. Since the second half of last year, he's really begun to put it together."
Noworyta about being old for the FSL--"He's fine in that league," Noworyta said. "He's at the age in that league where you need to be moving in the right direction and making progress. There's no doubt he's doing that."
8. Elizardo ("Easy") Ramirez, RHSP, CLW (now Reading), Age 21
Acquired as an undrafted free agent (international--Dominican)
Evaluation: An unbelievably dominant pitcher at the lower levels despite his rail-thin frame, posting one of the best K/BB ratios ever in the minor leagues in GCL 2 years ago (73/2). Throws a fastball in the low 90's, a slider, a curve, and a change, and can obviously throw all of them for strikes. Has a smooth motion and knows what he's doing on the mound. He got his baptism of fire this June spending three weeks in the big leagues while injured Philly pitchers recovered. His success will depend on mastering a real "out" pitch (his curve is the best candidate), adding velocity, or becoming the next Greg Maddux.
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Chuck Hixon (web author)--"Ramirez can do the basics, with a fastball in the low 90s and the usual movement that scouts look for on the pitch. His bread and butter pitch is the curveball. Ramirez would make some major league hitters look very foolish with his curve and it’s even getting better. While his curve ball has been getting better and better, many around the Phillies believe that he’ll gain more velocity over time. The Phillies have also been working slowly on getting Ramirez to throw a change-up that they think he’ll need to keep higher level hitters honest. "
Mike Schmidt, CLW manager--"He's around the plate and has great command."
Arbuckle last spring--"He's wiry-strong," Arbuckle said. "He pitches at 90 m.p.h. and hits 92-93 with his fastball. He's got a good curve and change-up and throws all three for strikes at any count. He's got great poise. He's very advanced for a young kid, more advanced than the typical 21-year-old we get out of college."
Ramirez went 7-1 with a 1.10 earned run average in his 11 starts with the Gulf Coast Phils last summer. He struck out 73 and walked just two in 73 1/3 innings. He came over here and put up ungodly numbers in the Gulf Coast League. This spring, he has continued on that path. I'm usually reluctant to skip kids over levels. He had to show me this spring, and he has."
9. Scott Mathieson, RHSP, Lakewood, Age 20
Acquired in the 17th round (#509 overall) of the 2002 draft
Evaluation: The two best things about Scott Mathieson are 1) he throws 96 mph and 2) he's young. He's still inconsistent due to his age and his relative lack of experience, and he still needs work on his secondary pitches. Has posted about a 2:1 K:BB ratio and about a K per IP this year. Reports indicate he's a very nice young man who works hard and listens to direction.
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Langley Blaze Coach Jason Andrew (courtesy of JE's philliesdraftreport.com)--"I know that in a year this kid will put on some pounds and velocity and will be only better, as some players seem to level out he will not. He is by far the hardest worker and most athletic kid I have coached. Many compare him to Ryan Dempster or Aaron Myette (both from this area) who I have coached against but Scott has more mound presence and potential as far as I see. He has the same slider as Jeff Zimmerman who is a local and has worked out in the winter with our pitchers. We are of course biased but see good things for Scott. He also is one of the leagues better hitters and recently hit two home runs in a game with one at least 420. He often DH's and plays a little first base."
BBA this spring--"94 mph fastball with room for added velocity, mechanics as smooth as any in the organization, showed up in spring with added strength, will start in Lakewood"
Gordon Heimuller last fall--"What I like about this kid is he's picked up 2-to-3 mph over a year, and his delivery is smoother," Heimueller said. "In Canada, you don't get the innings that California [high school pitchers] get, so he's still really raw. But, boy, if you'd have seen him a year ago."
Arbuckle last fall--"He's been sitting between 92 and 94 and his 'pitchability' is getting better. I'm always hesitant to throw out big-league names, but they [Kendrick and Mathieson] remind me of (San Francisco Giants' All-Star) Jason Schmidt. Because when we took Jason Schimdt when I was with Atlanta, he was a northwest kid, but you had a great body, good delivery, all the ingredients that you said, 'If this comes together, this kid will be pretty good.' "
Mathieson on a start in Lakewood coming off the DL--"It feels the best when I throw," Mathieson said. "(Missing time) was just frustrating. I always want to be out there on the mound, but they said it was just some bone spurs that would probably dissolve and they wanted to be cautious."
10. Keith Bucktrot, RHSP, Reading, Age 23
Acquired in the 3rd round (#85 overall) of the 2000 draft
Evaluation: Bucktrot throws pretty hard (94-5 mph fastball), but doesn't really have an out pitch, which keeps his K-rate down. He's reportedly very competitive, and he authored a no-hitter and a 1-hitter in Lakewood in 2001. Bucktrot has had trouble with command and with repeating his secondary pitches. Chosen as an FSL all-star in 2002 and fired 2 scoreless innings--also reportedly offered to Pittsburgh in an effort to acquire Jeff Supan last year.
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Arbuckle last May--"I feel real good with what Keith has done," Arbuckle said. "He's repeating his delivery, which has helped his command and control. Stuff has never been an issue with him. He's a young power pitcher who has been slow to put together."
Arbuckle last July--"We obviously like him," Arbuckle said. "We always thought he was a pretty solid prospect. It's kind of like I told somebody about Ryan Madson: 'A few years ago, we would have been raving about Ryan Madson.' But it's just the depth of the pitching that we have in the system now, and the ceiling that a couple of these guys have, that other guys get shoved to the side a little bit. In reality, they have some pretty good ceilings themselves. But we think we have a few guys that have a chance to be really special. But we've got some other guys like Bucktrot, kids that have a chance to be quality big-league pitchers."
Reading pitching coach Rod Nichols last year--"His delivery has changed," Nichols said. "It's awesome. It's slowed down. He understands it more. Whatever work they've been doing in Clearwater, it's been awesome. He's coming here with confidence and with that drive, as far as getting to the big leagues. That is his top priority. He's starting to smell it a little bit. He's been watching Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels and Elizardo Ramirez. He's watching them. He doesn't want to be passed up."
I tend to base evaluations primarily on performance in pro ball, secondarily on performance in major college ball (if relevant), and additionally on scouting reports and first-hand observations (drafting position and signing bonus is part of the scouting-type information). First year players such as Edgar Garcia and Michael Costanzo are therefore somewhat discounted with respect to Baseball America's ratings, which are heavily scouting-oriented. 
