Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Prospect #4--Gavin Floyd

4. Gavin Floyd, RHSP, SWB, 22
How acquired: Draft 2001, Rd. 1 (4th overall)
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: ~100%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Mid-rotation starter, 60%
Career Minor League ERA: 2.94; K/9: 7.28
6/30 Minor league ERA: 6.40; K/9: 6.68
Comparable major Leaguers: Don Robinson, Jim Lonborg, Brad Penny
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My comments: Floyd is a bit over-hyped, in my opinion--he's good, but his minor league K-rates have never been close to one per inning, and his fastball is very hittable if it's not well-located. His best pitch is his outstanding curve, he's poised on the mound, and he appears to be pretty durable for a young pitcher. This year's struggles are not unusual for a pitcher his age, and his reaction to them will provide a nice window into his competitive makeup. Arbuckle on Floyd's struggles: "The problem is his delivery. He can’t get himself straightened out. We’re trying to get him back on course. Until he gets his delivery straightened out, he’s going to have trouble throwing strikes. He’s thoroughly confused right now." Floyd on his struggles: "I'm thinking way too much out there. I was struggling a little bit and I tried to play around with my mechanics and do some things with my delivery, instead of just letting my natural ability take its course. Now I'm working to let things just happen and not try to force them." John Sickles on Floyd's strengths: "Physically, Floyd is close to being a perfect pitching prospect. He is tall and lanky, but not too thin. He has both a strong upper body and strong legs. His fastball can hit 95 mph, and is a consistent 92-93 mph offering, with movement. His curveball is one of the best breaking pitches in the minor leagues, and he can throw it for strikes. His changeup was mediocre when he first signed with the Phillies, but he has worked hard to improve it, and it is now at least an average pitch. Floyd's command is very impressive for a pitcher his age, and he is poised and confident on the mound. His biggest problems are his over-reliance on the curveball and occasional mechanical inconsistency, which sometimes hurts his command."

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