Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Prospect #1--Ryan Howard

1. Ryan Howard, 1B, SWB, 25
How acquired: Draft 2001, Rd. 5
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: 100%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Major League Allstar, 40%
Career Minor League OPS: .901
6/30 Minor league OPS: 1.166
Comparable major Leaguers: Paul Konerko, Mo Vaughn, Charlie M: Willie Stargell
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My comments: There's not much to say about Ryan Howard that posters here don't know already. He is a large but fairly agile first baseman with prodigious power to all fields, a very high strikeout rate, decent patience, deceptive basepath speed, and a remarkably high batting average on balls in play. Howard has never had trouble moving up levels in the minors, which bodes well for his transition to the big leagues. He's made adjustments to the pitching at each level quickly, and changed his game a bit as he advanced (he's much more selective now than last year, for instance, and he hits breaking balls better than he did in Reading and CLW). SWB manager Gene Lamont: "I've managed in the minor leagues a long time, and Ryan is the best power hitter I've ever had. There have been times this season when the expectations were such that he'd hit a home run every time he came up." Arbuckle on Howard being blocked in AAA: "I know this is tough for the player, but it's good for the club. I wish we had the same situation at four other positions. It's comforting to know Ryan is sitting here. If you move a guy like him, you have to get a lot back. You probably want to send him to the other league so you don't face him all the time. And you probably want to get a player with a similar ceiling at a similar age, not a rent-a-player or a guy two years from free agency. There aren't many guys in that category." Howard on his goals and mentality: "For me, it's all about getting up there. I want an opportunity. If it's with the Phillies, that's great. If not, that's O.K., too. I am just trying to stay the course and not get distracted. Someday, I think I'll look back on this as a time of patience."

Prospect #2--Michael Bourn

2. Michael Bourn, CF, Reading, 22
How acquired: Draft 2003, Rd. 4
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: 80%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Major League Allstar, 25%
Career Minor League OPS: .855 (.426 OBP)
6/30 Minor league OPS: .751 (.367 OBP)
Comparable major Leaguers: Juan Pierre, Brett Butler
Image(s)(Andrew Woolley pic used by permission (others below the same)):



My comments: Bourn is playing well in Reading after skipping a level--his power and eye seem to be returning in June after a couple of months of adjusting (his stolen base percentage, which has been low for him, has also improved recently). He's a prototypical leadoff hitter, with good speed, a good eye, and occasional gap power. He uses his speed well in the outfield, and has a better than average major league arm. If he finishes the year with an OBP around .380 he's almost a lock to be in Phily by 2007. Bourn on the jump to AA: "I have seen a difference in the pitching, but I think it’s more me than the pitching. I gave the pitchers too much credit in the beginning, but after you see the pitching for a while it’s like I know I can play here. That’s how you have to approach it. The big difference is probably in the fastball. Here, the fastball moves more. They know how to sink it and locate it. You just have to make adjustments. I have to do that here if I want to get to the big leagues.” Reading hitting coach Hal Morris on Bourn's makeup: “One of his greatest assets in his makeup. He has such a strong personality and a great presence about himself that the organization felt that if he did struggle up here he’d be able to withstand those challenges and compete. He’s a joy to work with. He comes out and works hard each day and does the extra work. He loves taking extra bunting. He throws well during infield practice, he has attention to detail, he takes the job very seriously, and at the same time he mingles well with the veteran players and he’s very personable in the clubhouse.”

Prospect #3--Cole Hamels

3. Cole Hamels, LHSP, CLW, 21
How acquired: Draft 2002, Rd. 1 (17 overall)
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: 100% if healthy, all things considered 50%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Ace Rotation Anchor, 35%
Career Minor League ERA: 1.31; K/9: 13.15
6/30 Minor league ERA: 0.00; K/9: 10.64
Comparable major Leaguers: Ron Guidry, Sandy Koufax (go ahead, rip me), tgo: Randy Jones (with more velocity)
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My comments: Hamels has the highest ceiling of any pitcher currently in the minors, but, of course, there are serious injury concerns. He throws a fastball that touches 96 and sits in the low 90s, a great change, and a curve (although his velocity is reportedly down a little right now, which is OK by me--let's stay within the body's physical limits). He's a bulldog competitor on the field, but, as most of you know, he has had some maturity issues off the field, possibly going back to his high-school arm injury. Will Kimmey of Baseball America on Hamels' Strengths: "His best pitch might be his plus-plus changeup, which was neck-and-neck with Ryan Madson’s as the best in the organization and possibly the minors. Hamels displays exceptional control of his changeup at such a young age, and it really fades away from hitters. Hamels shows a very businesslike mentality on the mound, with no great highs or lows. He’s a great athlete, allowing him to repeat his delivery with ease, hold runners and field his position well." Gordon Heimuller, Phils roving pitching coordinator on Hamels' 2005 debut: “You don’t know how nice it was to see. Cole was having fun out there and looking like the guy I saw a year and a half ago. I wouldn’t call it midseason form, but it was pretty good.” Arbuckle on the chances Hamels will go to Reading: “If Cole is dominating the league, I don’t want him sitting there bored. But let’s see what he does first.”

Prospect #4--Gavin Floyd

4. Gavin Floyd, RHSP, SWB, 22
How acquired: Draft 2001, Rd. 1 (4th overall)
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: ~100%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Mid-rotation starter, 60%
Career Minor League ERA: 2.94; K/9: 7.28
6/30 Minor league ERA: 6.40; K/9: 6.68
Comparable major Leaguers: Don Robinson, Jim Lonborg, Brad Penny
Image(s):



My comments: Floyd is a bit over-hyped, in my opinion--he's good, but his minor league K-rates have never been close to one per inning, and his fastball is very hittable if it's not well-located. His best pitch is his outstanding curve, he's poised on the mound, and he appears to be pretty durable for a young pitcher. This year's struggles are not unusual for a pitcher his age, and his reaction to them will provide a nice window into his competitive makeup. Arbuckle on Floyd's struggles: "The problem is his delivery. He can’t get himself straightened out. We’re trying to get him back on course. Until he gets his delivery straightened out, he’s going to have trouble throwing strikes. He’s thoroughly confused right now." Floyd on his struggles: "I'm thinking way too much out there. I was struggling a little bit and I tried to play around with my mechanics and do some things with my delivery, instead of just letting my natural ability take its course. Now I'm working to let things just happen and not try to force them." John Sickles on Floyd's strengths: "Physically, Floyd is close to being a perfect pitching prospect. He is tall and lanky, but not too thin. He has both a strong upper body and strong legs. His fastball can hit 95 mph, and is a consistent 92-93 mph offering, with movement. His curveball is one of the best breaking pitches in the minor leagues, and he can throw it for strikes. His changeup was mediocre when he first signed with the Phillies, but he has worked hard to improve it, and it is now at least an average pitch. Floyd's command is very impressive for a pitcher his age, and he is poised and confident on the mound. His biggest problems are his over-reliance on the curveball and occasional mechanical inconsistency, which sometimes hurts his command."

Prospect #5--Greg Golson

5. Greg Golson, OF, Lakewood, 19
How acquired: Draft 2004, Rd. 1 (21 overall)
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: 50%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Major League Allstar, 25%
Career Minor League OPS: .755
6/30 Minor league OPS: .744
Comparable major Leaguers: too soon to tell...maybe Andruw Jones if he reaches potential, or Jesse Barfield, Larry Rojas: Frank Robinson
Image(s):



My comments: Phils are very excited about Golson, they think he's a potential all-star power/speed combo, but he's a long way away from the big leagues right now. He's held his own at a very young age in the GCL and now in the Sally League while making significant changes in his swing, and anyone watching him can see he's a special athlete. Next year he needs to post some numbers to validate his high prospect status. Marti Wolever, Phils scouting director, on what they saw in Golson: "His skills and tools are better than many of the players selected ahead of him. He is a top-of-the-scale runner and his makeup is outstanding. He has a chance to be a productive Major League offensive center fielder. We had as much interest in Greg as anyone else that went in the first round. We knew he had a legitimate chance to get to us and he was really high on our list. We love his tools and his athleticism, and are happy to have him. We spent a lot of time with him. We've seen him play about every game. I would say he's at least four years away (from the Majors). You never know. Some (high school) guys are quicker. Vernon Wells was pretty quick. That's where the makeup comes in to play because he has such solid makeup he's going to find a way to achieve and be what he should be... He brings a lot to the party--Nothing ever gets in his way."

Prospect #6--Lou Marson

6. Louis Marson, C, Batavia, 18
How acquired: Draft 2004, Rd. 4
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: 40%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: Major League Allstar, 25%
Career Minor League OPS: .722 (GCL only)
6/30 Minor league OPS: .744
Comparable major Leaguers: too soon to tell...maybe Elston Howard if he reaches potential? Or Benito Santiago? tgo: Johnny Bench
Image(s):



My comments: Marson is hard to project from objective standards, but when I was in spring training talking to coaches, they all were extremely excited about his potential--you could tell it more in the manner in which they said things, rather than what they said. He's already a good defensive catcher with a very strong arm, and is hitting more balls hard than anyone else at Batavia early in the season. Steve Noworyta, Phils director of minor league operations, on watching Marson inthe GCL: "He's fun to watch play. It will be fun to watch him grow older and mature." Arbuckle, on Marson vs. Jaramillo: "Marson may have the better ceiling of the two--the ball really jumps off his bat. He's a good-looking kid who can catch and throw, and he's going to have plus-power."

Prospect #7--Scott Mathieson

How acquired: Draft 2002, Rd. 17
Percentage chance of playing in the majors in the future: 30%
Ceiling and chances of reaching it: #2 starter or closer, 25%
Career Minor League ERA: 4.61; K/9: 7.79
6/30 Minor league ERA: 3.99; K/9: 9.03
Comparable Major Leaguers: John Smoltz, Don Drysdale, Jason Schmidt
Image(s):


(Image courtesy of Dave Schofield, Lakewood team photographer)

My comments:

Prospect #8--Jason Jaramillo

8. Jason Jaramillo, C, Lakewood, 22

Prospect #9--Edgar Garcia

Prospect #10--Carlos Carrasco

Prospect #13--Chris Roberson

Prospect #27--Randy Ruiz

Kyle Kendrick


Kyle has been Batavia's most effective starter this year, which is an encouraging sign from a pitcher who has been a disappointment over the last two seasons. Kendrick, who has been compared by Mike Arbuckle to Jason Schmidt, features a low 90s fastball and a solid slider along with a change-up. He's still only 20 years old (which is younger than the majority of players in the NYPL) so his first two sub-par years have not put him in the dreaded too-old-for-league category. (Andrew Woolley photo used by permission--Andrew posts at philliesphans.com under the name Dick Allen HoF)

Sunday, July 24, 2005

Carlos Carrasco


Here's a spring training picture of Carlos Carrasco who put in time at Lakewood, Batavia, and now is playing for the GCL Phils (although he has yet to appear--perhaps throwing lots of side sessions to recapture his form). He has a beautiful motion; smooth, long-striding, seemingly effortless. His poor results this year were very surprising to me--I think he really struggled with location in the strikezone, and I've heard he lost some velocity with respect to last season. Still, at his age there's plenty of room for hope. I'd like to see him get a really dominating outing or two in for the GCL team before the end of the year.

Saturday, July 23, 2005

Julian Wiliams


Julian Wiliams is a speedy centerfielder with a cannon for an arm, the kind of "toolsy" athlete that scouts think may be able to develop some baseball skills. He didn't seem to have great bat speed when I saw him in Oneonta, but very few of the Muckdogs actually hit the ball hard at all in those games. Williams played some in the GCL last year, and is struggling so far in the NYPL season with the bat. He looked very good in CF defensively, getting good breaks on balls, hitting the cut-off man, and using his exceptional speed to cover lots of ground.

Lou Marson


Here's Lou Marson, the 19-year-old catcher who most consider the top prospect at Batavia this year. Marson projects to hit with power, and seems to have good strike-zone judgement. His glovework behind the plate is good, but in the series in Oneonta, he was not throwing the ball well (most scouting reports say he has an excellent arm, so I assume he was sore then). Marson is now the youngest person on the Batavia team, with Carlos Carrasco sent down to GCL.

Mike Costanzo


Here's a picture of Phils second round draft pick (the first pick they made) Mike Costanzo in Oneonta, waiting for the lights to come back on after one of two power failures during the three game series against the Tigers. Costanzo seems to have picked up his hitting a bit lately, but is still under the Mendoza line in the NYPL as I post this. Costanzo plays every second of every game at 100%, and will need to employ that intense effort in the offseason learning how to adjust to the wood bat. Costanzo's glovework is not pretty, but he gets the job done, and his arm is strong but not yet reliable.