Saturday, December 28, 2002

Winter 2002 Prospects List and Comments

This year I’m rating the players, including some stats (ages listed are official baseball ages for LAST year), and featuring quotes (see bottom of article for sources) about their performance during the year with a few of my own comments.

1) Marlon Byrd—CF, SWB, age 24

37 doubles, 15 homers, and a .838 OPS. Byrd had a solid season although his power production was down a bit. Before the season Arbuckle said, “All Marlon needs is more at-bats. I want to see him hit more experienced pitchers who change speeds.” Well Marlon hit ‘em reasonably well, and looks to have the CF job going into spring training. Byrd got off to a slow start, sizzled in the summer, and tailed off a bit in August, perhaps due to personal difficulties that we’ve all seen discussed. Arbuckle's scouting report: "Marlon started out strong, went into a little slump and now is back on a good track. He needs to continue to get at-bats. He plays a good center field. I think he's going to be a real frontline major-league player who has a chance to make a few All-Star teams. You can win pennants with him. When he got him, we saw a strong guy with power and speed, but his baseball skills didn't jump out right away because he was primarily a football player. He was raw, but the bat came and allowed him to use the power. The thing I love about him is he's a workaholic who makes adjustments quickly."

2) Gavin Floyd—RHSP, Lakewood, age 19

2.77 ERA, 140 K/166 IP, .200 OBA. Floyd had a great season, pitching a lot of healthy innings with excellent effectiveness lmost every time out. He was also asked to pitch on occasion without his best pitch, his curve, in order to improve his change-up. "We want Gavin to get his feet wet in pro ball this year," Arbuckle said before the season. "The quality of his stuff was outstanding in spring. This guy can be a No. 1 All-Star caliber in the big leagues. His ceiling is extremely high." He began the season on a very low pitch-count, restricting his outings to 4-5 innings until late May. "Gavin's only 19, and we want to bring him around slowly," minor-league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller said. "There is no need to rush him. It's the right thing to do. We're looking for pitch efficiency. You should be able to get through five innings with around 75-to-80 pitches." On his change-up Heimuller said, "He probably threw about six changeups in high school, then (in a geme in early May) he throws 12 changeups in six innings ... all 12 for strikes. A few were in the dirt, but hitters swung at 'em. He's really taken to the changeup, and that's huge because the curveball and fastball he's going to have." Heimueller's mid-season scouting report: "What's impressed me most about Gavin is his changeup, which is a pitch he didn't throw at all in high school. He has a big, hard curveball that he doesn't throw for strikes yet, but he will. Right now, he's consistently throwing in the low 90s, and will go down to 88. Gavin's throwing the ball well, but I wouldn't say he's dominating the league. You've got to understand that this kid is in his first year of pro ball, so we've been very conservative with him, not letting him throw for more than 75 pitches the first month. He'll get up to 105 or so this summer, and that's enough because he's pitching every five days and getting his work in. We all know he's a No. 1 pick and signed for a lot of money, but you wouldn't know it from talking to him. He's doing well and learning every single day - on and off the mound.'' BlueClaws skipper Jeff Manto however said that Floyd had the best stuff in the league, which is very impressive for a 19-year-old who was a high school senior a year ago. One of the highlights of Floyd’s season was a nine inning no-hitter, although he lost the game 1-0 to Lexinton. "That was about as much of a dominant game as I've seen in a long time, but it's bittersweet," said BlueClaws manager Jeff Manto. Floyd's no-hitter was the organization's first no-hitter since Bucktrot threw a seven-inning no-no for the BlueClaws last season. The last Phillies prospect to throw a nine-inning no-hitter was Brad Baisley for Clearwater in 1999. "I'm not going to say he's going to be better than Myers, but in three years I can see Myers and Floyd winning a bunch of games for the Phillies," minor-league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller said. "Like Myers, Gavin's something special, too. This is only his first year in pro ball and everybody thought he would compete well, but he's been a lot better than that." Floyd is 8-7 with a 2.88 ERA in 20 starts. In his last 11 starts, the 19-year-old right-hander is 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA. But because he's walked 50 over 122 innings, Floyd is unlikely to double-jump from the Sally League to Reading next season like Myers did last year. "Gavin doesn't have the command to do that, and Brett was an extraordinary kid mentally to the point where he's almost arrogant," Arbuckle said. "Shoot, he is arrogant. Gavin isn't like that."

3) Ryan Madson—RHSP, Reading, age 21

16-4, 3.20 ERA, 132/53 K/BB ratio, .242 OBA. Madson was coming off of a sub-par (for him) year at CLW, and Arbuckle said before the year, “The quality of his stuff continues to be good, but want him to improve on his ability to change speeds." Madson pitched well early (after a poor first start), and Heimuller said, "We've been stressing pitch inside to Ryan, and that's made his changeup better." At midseason Heimuller continued, “Ryan is bigger and stronger this year, and getting a better idea about pitching. One thing he's done very well is pitch inside more, especially with his fastball. That's made his changeup and breaking ball better. He's a kid with the best changeup in the organization. He has the confidence to throw it at any time, and it really complements his fastball. Because he's a big kid, he can create an angle in his pitches, and that's going to be an advantage. His fastball is anywhere from 88 to 91 mph, and that's an average fastball, but his changeup makes an average fastball look better than average. Right now, I can see him being a No. 3 starter someday in the big leagues." Clearly, Madson learned to change speeds. Near the end of the season the organization was even higher on him: "He's probably been the most consistent pitcher in the organization," Arbuckle said. "This guy's only had one or two shaky outings the whole season." Although imposing at 6-6, Madson doesn't overwhelm anyone with velocity or stuff, but has very good control and pitches with intelligence. "His raw stuff isn't in the Myers and Floyd category, but it's good," Arbuckle said. "Myers and Floyd can be a true No. 1s in a good rotation. I don't know that Madson quite has that ceiling, but he can be a quality No. 2 guy. He's going to be a very good big-league pitcher." The Phils awarded Madson the Paul Owens award for pitcher of the year, but cautiously did not promote him to AAA for the playoffs and asked him not to pitch winter ball after throwing 171 innings at Reading.

4) Taylor Buchholz, RHSP, CLW, age 20

10-6, 3.29 ERA, 129K in 159 IP, .233 OBA. Buchholz was coming off of a great second half in Lakewood, and continued his success this year. At the start of the season Arbuckle said, "The quality of his stuff is good, his command continues to improve and he touched 93, 94 mph this spring. I think he's got a chance to be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues." He had a short-lived slow start playing for a CLW team that was simply horrendous in the first half of the season, but began to get things back on track in late April with 7 innings of shutout ball versus Ft. Myers, although he continued to be inconsistent through May. "I just think pitchers, like hitters, go through slumps, and he's experiencing a slump right now," said Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies' assistant general manager in charge of player development. "He's having some trouble throwing strikes. He's having a little down spell, but he'll come back from it. "Clearwater manager John Morris gave a more detailed description of Buchholz's problems. "The command of his fastball hasn't been as sharp as we'd like," Morris said. "It's a work in progress with him." Heimuller offered this mid-season scouting report, "Taylor hasn't been blessed with playing on good teams, but maybe it's going to make him a better pitcher in the long run. He's got potential for a three-pitch mix that are better than average. He has a fastball that he can move inside, a very good curve ball and a good changeup that's still a little inconsistent. He'll throw 89-to-92 mph and his fastball has life to it. He has a nice pitcher's body, too, and has more muscle than when he first signed. He's progressing very well." Arbuckle usually shies away from promoting young pitchers during a season, but the Phils made an exception with Buchholz in mid August promoting him a level from Clearwater. A sixth-round draft pick in 2000 from Springfield, Pa., Buchholz was 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA over his last 12 starts. "Taylor's earned it," Arbuckle said. "He's always been a slow starter, so the feeling is if he goes up now and gets acclimated to the league it'll help him for next year." Arbuckle’s end of season comment, "This kid just continued to move in a positive direction in everything he did ... from the quality of his pitches, his ability to make pitches in certain situations to his ability to control a game."

5) Anderson Machado—SS, Reading, age 21

.751 OPS, 72 walks, 77 RBI from the 2-hole, .156 average hitting RH vs .289 lefty. Machado should probably give up switch hitting as his .400 righty OPS indicates (vs .850 lefty). At mid-season, machado was named the best prospect on the Reading team (which included Madson and Chapman) Arbuckle said that the Venezuelan was still a baby at 21, but already was so good defensively that he's being compared to Davey Concepcion. He's holding his own at the plate, but the switch-hitter is batting poorly from right side. "This kid is starting to figure it out," Arbuckle said. "He has just continued to get stronger and, as he naturally fills out, he is starting to control the bat better." Near the end of the season, Machado had a power surge: “Anderson Machado is known for his flashy defense and speed. His bat always has been the weakest part of his game, but that's changing in a big way. A 21-year-old switch-hitter, Machado has been putting up Sammy Sosa-like numbers the last week. Through Friday, the Venezuelan had an incredible 19 RBIs in his last six games with three homers (including two grand slams) and three doubles. For the season, he's hitting .259 with a career-high 12 homers and a personal best 70 RBIs. "Anderson is in a great groove right now, and the key is he continues to get stronger," Arbuckle said. "We always felt he was going to hit, and it was a matter of strength." Machado weighed just 130 when signing with the Phils at age 16. Now, he's up to 170. Machado still needs work in one area. He's hitting .301 with 11 homers in 289 at-bats left-handed, but has a .152 average with one homer in 112 at-bats from the right side. For now, Machado will continue hitting both ways. "It would be down the road if we stopped him from switch-hitting," Arbuckle said. "He's still young and has time to improve." Besides his added production, Machado is having a career year on the bases, too, with 36 steals in 46 attempts. And in the field, he's been making Ozzie Smith-like plays all season, despite his 27 errors in 109 games.” He’s finally convinced me he’s going to hit in the big leagues (likely as a lefty-only, though), so I’m now a believer after resisting the bandwagon for so long.

6) Travis Chapman—3B, Reading, age 23

35 doubles, 15 HR’s, organization-high .861 OPS (which was over 1.100 at the time of his injury). Chapman has an unusual batting style (closed, pigeon-toed stance with his left leg barely touching the ground) and has not hit with power until this year, making him an unlikely prospect coming into 2002. Arbuckle down-played him before the season-- his scouting report: "Travis is a good contact hitter who hits for average and has gap power. He's probably better than average defensively. He's a guy that five or six years ago everyone would have been talking about, but he's not an upper-echelon guy now because we've got better talent." In mid May the Phils changed their tune—“Chapman (.398, 6 HR, 27 RBIs) is so hot that he's in Ted Williams' territory - over .400 - until Friday, when he was 0 for 2 and left the game after being hit in the lower back by a pitch in the fourth inning. Through Friday, Chapman, 23, was hitting .478 (22 for 46) with 16 RBIs in his last 14 games. "Travis always made good contact, but he worked hard over the winter and came into camp stronger," said Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies assistant GM for scouting and player development. "He's driving the ball better now. He has gone from a guy who was marginal to a guy who has a chance to play in the big leagues." What's surprising everyone is Chapman’s power. A 17th-round pick in 2000, he hit six homers in his first two pro seasons, but already has six this season in 123 at-bats. "There aren't many big-league third basemen who hit five or six home runs a year, and he was projected to do that in the past," Arbuckle said.” Looked a bit like covering their previous mistakes to me. Long quote from an Inky article:
[quote] "I think the fact that he's gotten stronger has really paid off for him," Arbuckle said. "He really went into a hard conditioning program this winter, and now he's showing the ability to drive the ball. He always made good contact, but the strength factor is significant."

That strength came from a winter of intense workouts in Los Angeles with Darren Bush, a teammate last season at single-A Clearwater.

"I just got real big into working out," Chapman said. "We moved out there and worked out six days a week. Darren just knew a lot about working out. I got to the point where I could [lift] significantly more weight, and I started a better diet with a lot of calories and protein."

In his first season at double-A Reading, Chapman has become the talk of the Eastern League.

Through Saturday, he led the league in hitting (.398), hits (49) and doubles (14). He was tied for the league lead in extra-base hits (20) and on-base percentage (.465). Also, he was second in slugging percentage (.659), thanks to his six home runs, one more than he hit last season, when he opened the year in Clearwater and finished at Reading.

"Heck, yeah, it's been fun," Chapman said. "It's always nice to contribute to your team winning and to start off hot."

Wherever Chapman has played, he has left an indelible mark with his managers.

Asked before the start of the season what player might really make an impact at Reading this year, Phillies bench coach Gary Varsho immediately offered Chapman's name.

"There's just something about him that I really like," said Varsho, Reading's manager last season.

Chapman made that impression after spending just a few weeks with Varsho.

John Morris, the manager at Clearwater, spent most of last season with Chapman.

"I said in the organizational meetings last year that this kid is a sleeper to play in the big leagues," Morris said. "This kid is a professional hitter."

Rico Brogna, in his first season as a hitting instructor at Reading, is seeing the same things that impressed Varsho and Morris.

"He has as close to a picture-perfect righthanded swing as I've seen," Brogna said. "It is definitely the best righthanded swing I've seen this season. There's no question his work ethic is great.

"He asks questions, even though he already has a lot of knowledge about the mechanics of his swing. To be honest, he really didn't have that good a [spring training], but when we went in to watch some video and I started talking to him, I thought, 'Wow, this kid really has an understanding of what he's doing.' He can make adjustments in the middle of an at-bat."

What also makes Chapman interesting is the position he plays.

It's no secret, of course, that the Phillies will likely be in need of a third baseman after this season. Chapman plays that position.

At this point, Chapman is not considered as much a prospect as Chase Utley, the Phillies' first-round pick in 2000 who is learning how to play third base at triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Utley, a second baseman last year at Clearwater, skipped his scheduled stop at Reading this season and is holding his own at Scranton, hitting .269 with a league-leading 14 doubles and six home runs.

"I think there may be some competition between those two," Arbuckle said. "It will be good for Chase to look behind him and see this guy putting up those kinds of numbers."

If there is a weakness in Chapman's game, it is his speed.

"He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he's a very smart baserunner," Morris said.

Chapman sat out Saturday night's game against New Haven after being hit by a pitch in the hip. Earlier in the week, he had another one of those moments that defined the hitter he has become.

Reading faced Altoona on Tuesday afternoon, and righthander Kris Benson made his final rehabilitation start before rejoining the Pittsburgh Pirates.

"He had some really good at-bats against Benson," Brogna said. "He wasn't overmatched at all. I think this kid can hit in the big leagues."

He's done nothing but hit in the minor leagues.
[/quote]

7) Chase Utley—3B/2B/?, SWB, age 23

I think the Phils hurt him badly by moving him to 3B, where his defense appears to be worse than it was at 2B, and publicly speculating about moving him again to 1B where he really doesn’t hit enough to play. “Utley still needs work at his new position,” the Phils said in May. The former second baseman had 13 errors in 40 games at the hot corner. "Chase has good hands and a good quick first step - and that's a plus - but he has to get a more consistent arm slot throwing the ball to first," Red Barons manager Marc Bombard said. Arbuckle's scouting report: "He's on a good track. He's swinging the bat well, hitting the ball hard. He's just gotta play every day. The errors don't worry me. He's at a new position and he's doing fine there. He's actually made some pretty good plays at third base already." Arbuckle continued to be Utley’s biggest booster at mid-season. "We can make a big deal of the errors, but it's part of the learning process, and I think Chase is doing fine," Arbuckle said. "We're going to continue to concentrate on his defense, but he's really improving." Utley still has problems going to his left. "He changed positions and jumped two levels at same time," Arbuckle said. "I would anticipate him not walking in and being accomplished." What about next year? The Phils discussed this in August: [quote]"Personally, I'd like to see him start here again next season," Scranton/Wilkes-Barre manager Marc Bombard said. "I think he could use a little more seasoning. But who knows? He might play winter ball, and people might see tremendous improvement and say he's ready. I think he'll certainly be in the mix in spring training."

Mike Arbuckle, the Phils' assistant general manager in charge of player development and scouting, said: "I think there's a chance. But if he plays up there, he's certainly not a finished product at third base. He's been playing ahead of schedule. I think he can survive there, but it's a pretty good assignment to jump a level and learn a new position all in one year. He'd have his hands full defensively."

Said Utley: "It's up to them. If they feel I'm ready, if they have enough confidence in me, they'll put me out there. When they do that, I'm definitely going to have confidence in myself."

The most important opinion on Utley's readiness belongs to Phillies general manager Ed Wade, the man ultimately responsible for putting together next year's team.

While being quick to acknowledge Utley's overall talent and progress this season, Wade hinted that Utley could need more time in triple A, saying: "We've thrown an awful lot at him in a hurry this year. The transition from second base to third is not an easy one. At this point, he's certainly in the hunt for next season, but I also think he deserves some patience."[/quote]

8) Elizardo Ramirez—RHSP, GCL, age 19

1.10 ERA, 7-1, .165 OBA, and “The stat of the year:” 73/2 K/BB ratio. Unbelievable dominating year for “Easy”, but it wasn’t entirely unexpected—the 18-year-old righthander was an eye-popping 10-1 with a 1.26 ERA in 14 starts for the Phillies' Dominican Summer League team last year. "You'll be hearing about this kid in a couple years," Heimueller predicted. "He's a special kid," Heimueller continued. "I like him a lot. His delivery is very effortless. He averages 89, 90 mph, touches 91, 92, and he commands pretty good. He doesn't just throw it down the middle. And his work habits for a 19-year-old are very good. He fields his position and holds runners very well, does all this stuff that you want to see when they get older." "With Elizardo, you're watching a veteran pitcher in a kid's body," pitching coach Carlos Arroyo said. "He has the ability to repeat his delivery, and that's unbelievable at his age. He's not blowing people away, but the way his pitches finish kind of reminds me of Pedro Martinez, especially with the arm speed on his changeup." Arroyo says Ramirez “could be successful "right now" at Clearwater, but he'll finish the season in Rookie League because the league has a mandate on each team having so many players age 20-and-under and he's needed there to maintain the team’s age eligibility.” "I keep saying it, but this kid pitches like someone a lot older," Heimueller added. Next year, Ramirez probably will start out in Lakewood. Another reason the 19-year-old wasn't promoted this year is he's taking English classes in a program set up by Sal Artiaga, the club's director of Latin American operations. "The numbers say you move him, but he's apart of Sal's program and if I move him he loses out in that development," Arbuckle said. "He's not just getting his English classes three or four days a week, but learning basics on how to sit down in a restaurant and order to paying bills." Things were exciting for the GCL champion Phillies, especially on the mound, "I think pitching depth in the organization is excellent, and it shows all the way down to the lower levels," Arbuckle said. Staff ace Elizardo Ramirez pitched a three-hit shutout to win Game 1 of the finals, then 2002 No. 2 draft pick Zach Segovia worked three scoreless in relief to win Game 3. Asked about the top two pitchers, Arbuckle added, "Both are very legit. Segovia is a very strong and competitive kid with a very good arm. Ramirez is a kid with pitch-ability beyond his years, and he has great command with very good stuff."

9) Carlos Rodriguez—SS, Batavia, age 18

.290, 29 runs (led team), 21 SB, .694 OPS. Actually, the numbers weren’t bad at all for an 18-year-old in a college dominated league. Arbuckle said prior to the season, “Rodriguez can really play short, is a plus runner and his bat's coming." At the end of the year in Batavia, a pair of 19-year-olds Dominicans with the same first name gave the Phillies a reason to be excited. SS Carlos Rodriguez (.286, 15 RBIs, 21 SB) and RHP Carlos Cabrera (8-2, 3.94) were the biggest bright spots this summer for the Muckdogs, who will finish their season this weekend as a last-place team. "We like Rodriguez and Cabrera a lot," Arbuckle said. "Both of those guys had very good summers and are on a positive track." Through Friday, Cabrera was third in the league in innings and tied for third in wins. Besides showing terrific defensive ability, the switch-hitting Rodriguez is third in the league in steals and second on his team in hitting in his first full season as a pro. Arbuckle's comment: "Carlos really had a quality year. He was very good defensively and made good strides offensively."

10) Ryan Howard—1B, Lakewood, age 22

19 HR’s, 20 doubles, 66 walks, .827 OPS. Howard is a classic power/patience guy, whose season probably wasn’t quite up to the level it should be for a 22-year-old top prospect in the Sally league. Last year’s manager Bill Dancy’s pre-season scouting report: "He's still making the adjustment from a metal bat to wood, but he can hit the ball out in dead center anywhere. I think he can hit 20 homers in the big leagues and can be a .260-to-.270 hitter. He's been getting better at first base. He has really good hands, but needs work on his footwork." Howard was named the team’s first-half MVP.

"This guy really believes in himself," Lakewood manager Jeff Manto said. "There are some guys who say they believe in themselves or think they believe in themselves, but you can see that every time Ryan goes on the field, he is determined to get to the big leagues."

At this stage, Howard is still a raw talent, something he readily acknowledges.

"I feel like I'm doing pretty well," he said. "But I need to work on my whole game. Everything. There have been improvements in things defensively and offensively, but I have a lot of work to do on my whole game."

Manto agreed that Howard has a lot to learn. That's also why the manager is so excited about his first baseman's future.

"He's a flat-out joy to work with," Manto said. "He doesn't even know how to really hit yet and he's already hitting well. It will be exciting to watch him as he gets more repetitions and learns more and more about how to hit."

Don't tell opposing pitchers in the South Atlantic League that Howard is still learning to hit. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound slugger has used his sweet lefthanded swing to hit a league-leading 13 home runs.

"Not one of them has been a cheap home run," Manto said. "He hits line drives to right field, he hits balls out to left field. There are a few ballparks in this league that are small, but none of his home runs have been hit there."

Howard also leads the BlueClaws with 58 RBIs, 50 walks and a .396 on-base percentage. The only negatives on his Lakewood resume are the 91 times he has struck out and the 12 errors he has made at first base.

"The strikeouts don't even bother me," Manto said. "He has cut down on them since we started the second half. He has a good idea of the strike zone. He'll take curveballs and he's not afraid of lefthanders. His defense has gotten better. That's something that is definitely on the rise."

Despite his large stature - he's built like a young Mo Vaughn - Howard also is a pretty good baserunner. In addition to leading the BlueClaws in home runs, he has a team-high five triples, good for fifth in the league. His batting average has hovered around .300 all season.

"His speed is deceiving, and he knows how to run the bases," Manto said. "Once he gets going, he can move. If he puts a ball in the gap, he'll try to get a triple. I think he can hit for average and power."

That Howard has emerged as a top prospect in his first full season with the Phillies is not entirely surprising. He was projected as a possible No. 1 pick after playing for the U.S. national team in 2000. But when he hit just .271 as a junior at Southwest Missouri State, his stock slipped and he slid all the way to the fifth round.

"I think where we took him, we thought he was a very good gamble," Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies assistant general manager, said. "There was nothing physically wrong. It just looked like he was pressing.

"This kid is kind of a perfectionist; a little like David Coggin. He puts a little too much pressure on himself. But we can see him growing out of that. He's having fun playing now."


11) Seung Lee, RHSP, Lakewood, 22
12) Jorge Padilla, OF, Reading, 22
13) Ryan Carter, LHSP, CLW, 23
14) Cole Hamels, LHSP, DNP (late signing), 18
15) Zach Segovia, RHSP, GCL, 18
16) Carlos Cabrera, RHSP, Batavia, 19
17) Danny Gonzalez, SS, Lakewood, 20
18) Yoel Hernandez, RHSP, CLW, 19
19) Eric Junge, RHSP, SWB, 25
20) Rob Tejeda, RHSP, CLW (injured), 20
21) Jean Machi, RHP, GCL, 18
22) Mark McRoberts, C, Batavia, 20
23) Eziquiel Astacio, RHSP, Lakewood, 21
24) Brian Hansen, 1B, GCL, 18
25) Keith Bucktrot, RHSP, CLW, 21
26) Franciso Butto, RHSP, GCL, 19
27) Juan Richardson, 3B, CLW,23
28) Jake Blalock, 3B/OF, GCL, 18
29) Nick Punto, SS/util, SWB, 24
30) Jeury Diaz, C, GCL, 18
31) Terry Jones, 3B, Batavia (injured), 19
32) Elio Serrano, RHRP, SWB, 23
33) Brad Baisley, RHSP, Reading (injured), 22
34) Taft Cable, RHP, Lakewood, 21
35) Eric Arteaga, RHSP, Batavia, 22

Thanks for the many quotes from Randy Miller's "Down on the Pharm" column at phillyburbs.com, others from the Inquirer.