Friday, August 31, 2001

End of 2001 Prospect Discussion

August Prospect Update:

I decided to do the update by teams this time, dividing players into those who had taken a step forward, those who were treading water, and those who were sinking fast. I’ll send the html version to Dave soon and have him post it. Players are listed where they’ve played the majority of their time:

SWB

Steps forward:

SPECIAL SECTION--guys who got “the call”:

David Coggin--(now with the Phils)--his stats at SWB were good, but nothing special. Only 53 K’s in 97 IP’s, 1.274 WHIP, less than a 2.0 K:BB ratio, yet he has been very successful with the big club in his second turn. He has stepped forward, though, since in 1999 he pitched horribly at Reading, and in 2000 he was mediocre at AA and AAA. His last good year was in low-A ball, and his most significant improvement this year is in his control, which led to a 3.05 AAA ERA. If I could trade this guy for his perceived value now I’d do it in a second.

Nelson Figueroa--(now with the Phils)--doesn’t light up the radar gun, but has lots of movement on his pitches and lots of guts. Uses both sides of the plate and rarely leaves his breaking stuff up in the zone, though he does occasionally put a fastball in the heart of the plate. SWB stats were spectacular 87 IP’s, 74K’s, only 74 hits yeilded, 1.053 WHIP, 4.1 K:BB ratio, and a 2.47 ERA. I hate to jinx the guy, but he pitches like a young Greg Maddox, with the same movement on his fastball, though it’s a few mph slower.

Johnny Estrada--(now with the Phils)--forced to the bigs by injury, he capitalized on a hot spring training, convincing the Phils he could hold down the position. He has been more than adequate defensively, but his two biggest offensive weaknesses are more apparent than ever--no strike-zone control and a tendency to GIDP frequently. He hit .290 in 131 AAA AB’s with a low OPS.

Brandon Duckworth--(now with the Phils)--clearly the best pitcher in AAA baseball this year, if BBA were to rate the Phils prospects today he’d probably be #1. He led the IL in wins, K’s, and ERA (the pitcher’s triple crown) when he was promoted in early August. 147 IP, 122 hits, 150 K’s, a 1.075 WHIP, and a 4.2 K:BB ratio. His ERA was 2.63, and he punctuated his season with a brilliant 2 IP’s in the AAA all-star game. Not bad for an undrafted free agent!

END OF SPECIAL SECTION

Other steps forward:

Eric Valent--improved his BB/AB ratio enough to be a legitimate threat to become a regular major-league outfielder--his defense is excellent, he has a great arm, and he has sufficient power. I expect he’ll be insurance in AAA next year despite the progress he’s shown. I’d like to see him come to camp next spring 20 lbs heavier and a lot stronger, since he doesn’t have great speed anyway. OPS currently at .855, he leads the team in RBI’s and has less than a 2 K:BB ratio.

Kevin Orie--career minor leaguer who gave himself a chance to get back to the bigs again after failing with the Cubs. He has fielded 3B quite well, and is the most patient hitter we have in AAA (talk to Reggie Taylor, please!). Currently sporting an .864 OPS with a .404 OBP and 30 doubles. If Rolen goes down, he would be head and shoulders better at third than Kevin Jordan or Felipe Crespo

Doug Nickle--he was unreal up until his last two outings with a 1.04 ERA into August. His ERA currently is 1.41 with a 1.086 WHIP and a 1.8 K:BB ratio. He’s has been primarily a set-up reliever, though he’s finished 21 games with 6 saves.

Matt Walbeck--acquired from the Reds, has hit .333 in his first month at SWB.

Pete Zamora--the rule V minor league draftee has posted good enough numbers to get noticed, he might make the show as a lefty specialist.

Treading Water:

Tom Jaquez--continues to be effective without being spectacular.

Jason Boyd--a low ERA and high K’s combine with only a mediocre WHIP. Used similarly to Nickle.

Reggie Taylor--a severe ankle sprain early in the season kept him out of the lineup for a month, and hampered his hitting for a month afterward. Since mid-June he’s hitting over .300 with power and his walk rate is up, but still lower than it needs to be. Current OPS is .675.

Jason Michaels--looking more and more like a AAAA player, he’s hitting only .256 with a .756 OPS. No speed, no power, no OBP usually keeps an outfielder in the minors.

Nick Punto--fielding well at SS, he walks quite a bit and steals bases, but he’s only hitting .235. A .641 OPS won’t get you to the bigs, but if he hits .270-.280 next year he’s got a chance.

Sinking fast:

Evan Thomas--took a really long time to start pitching well after off-season ankle surgery. The Phils never liked the 5’9” righty anyway. I suspect he’ll be a minor league free agent departure this winter. ERA is 5.28 with a WHIP over 1.5.

On to AA!

Reading is a fairly interesting list, especially the pitchers:

Steps forward:

Marlon Byrd--this one you know--if he’s not the number 1 prospect, he’s number 2. Adjusted well to CF, just as he adjusted to the level jump. He could be a 30-30 guy in the minors, a rare accomplishment. His current OPS is .966 with 25 HR’s and 23 steals. I’d like to see him get the chance to make the team next spring, he’s not that young.

Brett Myers--slumped through mid-summer, but back on track now. I still don’t see him as an A+ prospect as many do, but he’s very good and still young. There are not many 20-year-olds pitching in AA as effectively as he is. Tends to overthrow when in trouble and miss his spots, but he is apparently working on that now. 1.328 WHIP (too high for a top-notch prospect) and a 3.0 K:BB ratio (showing improved control). He’s allowed 20 HR’s and opponents are hitting .275 against him, both numbers also too high for a premeire pitcher.

Carlos Silva--though he has been somewhat erratic, this has been his best year in the Phils’ system. His 1.236 WHIP is reflective of great control rather than deceiving stuff--he sometimes throws hard but straight. 3.3 K:BB ratio.

Mickey Lopez--very patient hitter, Lopez was acquired from the Brewers for Bobby Sismondo (PTBNL) and has played SS and 2B and hit at the top of the order for the RPhils. Lopez is too old (27) to be a great prospect, but a .370 OBP is nothing to sneeze at in a versatile infielder.

Brian Harris--good power numbers for a SS/2B, the switch hitter kills lefty pitching and could be a very useful platoon infielder (if anyone still does that!). .748 OPS currently with 39 extra base hits

Andy Dominique--played catcher, 1B, and some limited 3B this year, has been promoted to SWB recently. He learned how to hit again this year, but is a bit too old to be a true prospect. His .848 Reading OPS would look good coming off the bench, though.

Treading Water:

Frank Nunez--can’t seem to pitch in relif, but still shows his 97 mph heater as a starter. Still inconsistent. More than a K per IP, but a high WHIP

Rusty McNamara--injury killed his season.

Mark Outlaw--double jump was tough on him.

Jeremy Wedel, Cary Hiles--inconsistent, low K/IP numbers for short relievers (Hiles can hit, though--he DH’d twice when Reading was short-handed)

Jason Johnson--fast, excellent defensive CF had a good first half repeating in the FSL but has yet to really play well at Reading. Older prospect must steal bases and hit for average to advance.

Sinking Fast:

Josue Perez--injury and attitude problems, hitting under the Mendoza line.

Uri Casillas--not hitting, too old to have an off year.

Geoff Geary--not getting it done, recently moved to relief.

Jason Kershner--stats worse than last year, couldn’t handle AAA

Clearwater is the home of many of the organization’s pre-season top prospects, but all is not good news here:

Steps forward:

Travis Chapman--not mentioned in any pre-season prospect listing, the 6’2”, 190 lb 3B taken in the 17th round of the 2000 draft out of Mississippi State has continued his excellent, balanced offensive production. Hitting .321 with an .821 OPS, the 22-year-old needs to develop a little more power (which his frame suggests he will) to continue along the road to becoming one of the organization’s top prospects. He has committed only 11 errors in 76 games at 3B and drawn 35 walks in 280 AB’s, but only has 21 extra-base hits.

Miguel Ascencio--an enigma last year when he pitched very well in 5 games at Clearwater but struggled at Batavia, Ascencio has put it together this summer to become the ace of the CLW staff. He has struck out 100 batters in 130 IP and has a WHIP of 1.300 to go along with his 2.91 ERA and team-leading 10 wins. His only weakness is control, which should improve as this 20-year-old matures

Martire Franco--the number 2 pitcher on the CLW staff is more than a year younger than Ascencio, but seems very poised for his age. His record is 9-7 with a 3.78 ERA, but his K/IP ratio is low and he allows more than a hit per IP. He’ll have to keep improving to stay ahead of the young arms now at Lakewood

Chris Keelin--shares the closing duties with Brad Pautz, and is the more impressive prospect with his 71 K’s in 58 IP

Brad Pautz--leads the team in saves, has great stuff but goes through periods where he’s being hit hard. Good control (only 18 BB’s in 52 IP) and good stuff are his trademarks, and may allow this former starter to make the show as a set-up man.

Treading water:

Chase Utley--he’s shown more power (13 home runs is good in the FSL) and continues to improve his fielding, but his low average (.251) and falling walk rate are concerns. A .738 OPS with only a .318 OBP are not good enough for a first round draftpick to continue to be a top-ten prospect.

Nate Espy--he continues to show power and patience, but he must take one more step forward offensively to become a legitimate prospect as a first baseman. His .800 OPS is good but not great for a 23-year old cleanup hitter in the FSL.

Jorge Padilla--without the injuries he might have taken a step forward, but he has been out three times this year with nagging problems (especially his hamstring). His .828 OPS leads the team, but the 21-year-old outfielder who has been compared to Sammy Sosa needs to find a way to stay healthy.

Anderson Machado--still fielding his position exceptionally (and more consistently), he just can’t seem to find a consistent way to contribute offensively. A .735 OPS in the FSL isn’t too bad for a slick-fielding SS, but it’s not as high as you would expect from a FSL repeater (even though he’s only 20 years old). Recently promoted to Reading, where he’s hitting below .200.

Brad Baisley--recently promoted to Reading, the 6’9” righty just can’t seem to get his act together following his arm injuries over the last two years. He posted a better than 2.0 K:BB ratio at CLW, but he has lately been hit pretty hard at Reading.

Ryan Madson--a slow start followed by a July injury has hampered his development. He continues to post good K:BB numbers (2:1) but has yielded far too many hits

Sinking fast:

Julio Campos--he lost 2/3 of the season to injury after tearing up the GCL last summer. No way to tell whether he can handle the higher level since he plays only about once a week]

Alex Giron--repeated CLW and didn’t improve, looks like an organizational player.

Russ Jacobson--showing little power, no patience at the plate, and not hitting for average (though he has improved in the second half). He has good defensive skills which should allow the catcher to advance despite a sub-par year. Persistent rumors say he’s not focused on baseball, which he needs to be given his production.

Jay Sitzman--a very slow start, followed by a scorching mid season, followed by a late season slump led to a .677 OPS for this fleet CF out of Arizona State. Needs to become far more patient at the plate.

Frank Brooks--classy lefty can’t get high A hitters out consistently, either as a starter or in relief.

Justin Fry--a very high ERA for Piedmont’s premiere reliver last year.

Greg Kubes--despite a selection to the FSL all-star team, Kubes has a high ERA, low strikeouts, and a high WHIP.

Lakewood was a question mark coming into the season (although their offense looked very weak), and the prospect development here has been a pleasant surprise.

Steps forward:

Taylor Buchholz--a 19-year-old chosen the opening day starter for the Blueclaws, he’s 7-1 since a 1-10 start--this highly regarded 2000 HS draftee has paid dividends in the second half of the season. A 1.260 WHIP and a 2.2 K:BB ratio indicate advancement potential. He leads the SAL in CG’s and shutouts. Might be pitching a few too many innings.

Mario Delgado--coming out of nowhere this 2001 mid-round draftee shocked even the Phils. He destroyed the pitching in the GCL for a week, and they promoted him to Lakewood where he’s been the best hitter in the league for a month. A .964 OPS with .581 SLG, he continued to produce despite suffering a painful shoulder injury that restricted his swing (from which he’s just now only partially recovered). Lefty swinging college outfielder moved to 1B by the Phils.

Ambi Reyes--a slick fielding infielder, Reyes finally learned to hit with consistency this year, but he still needs to learn to hit with power or take a few walks or he’ll top out at AAA. Reyes plays 2B, SS, and 3B extremely well, though the Phls seem to like him best at 2B. He hit .285 at Lakewood before being promoted to CLW where he’s now batting over .320.

Juan Richardson--finally showing some of what the Phils believe is exceptional talent. He’s hitting for power and taking walks, but his sub-.240 average has got to be improved for him to be a real prospect. He’s only 20 years old, so there’s still time. His OPS is a very respectable .775 given his low average.

Wes Carroll--has been here too short a time to make a final judgement, but he’s hitting .310 with an .800 OPS so far.

Rob(inson) Tejada--leads the team’s starters in ERA and strikeouts, averaging a K per IP. His 1.181 WHIP and 2.7 K:BB ratio are impressive for a young power pitcher who had previously only pitched impressively to the radar gun in the US.

Treading water:

Anthony Hensley--came back from a career threatening shoulder injury, still stealing bases and drawing walks. Playing much better lately after a very slow start. Needs to shift to CF.

Keith Bucktrot--pitched a no-hitter against the offensively challenged ChWVa club, but has been very inconsistent. Still young, but almost a year older than Buchholz.

Ryan Carter--best lefty starter in the Phils minor league organization now, but he is still struggling with control. Promoted to CLW where his numbers are similar. Averages almost a K/IP and less than a hit/IP.

Yoel Hernandez--averages less than a hit/IP but with fairly low K/IP totals. Not nearly as dominating as he was at GCL last year. Only 18 years old, has time to improve.

George Rodriguez--great numbers at Lakewood (0.47 ERA) but failed when promoted earlier in the season to CLW.

Andy Elskamp--lots of K’s per IP, but not used in game-finishing situations.

Dan Adams, Eude Brito, Trevor Bullock, Chad Sadowski--all four have ERA’s lower than 2.50 and are pitching very well in relief. Bullock is the closer and a lefty, all might be prospects, but need more work at a higher level to be sure.

Jarrod Lawson--appears to be regaining his arm strength after surgery. Numbers this year are encouraging, especially the K/IP ratio of about 1:1.

Sinking fast:

Reggie Griggs--older GCL hitting star was injured and released.

Carlos Acevedo--corner OF is all tools, no performance. OPS of .603.

Dario Delgado--NYP all-star 1B seems to have reached his limit--.496 OPS

Kennon McArthur--catcher who simply can’t hit.

Dan Tosca--see Kennon McArthur

Scott Youngbauer--erratic SS who doesn’t walk or hit for average--has a little bit of power, but limited range.

Jason Barnette--CF needs to learn to take a walk, OBP only .285 with no power.

I’ll do the short season leagues a bit differently, listing those who have shown enough to be considered prospects, and those who have given some reasons for hope. In these leagues players are sometimes making large adjustments, and a bad year (or even two for a young player) don’t eliminate a player from prospect status.

GCL/Batavia:

Prospects on the rise:

Carlos Rodriguez: at 17 he’s a year younger than most of his competition in the GCL, yet he leads the littlest Phils’ regulars in SLG and RBI and is second in OBP. he’s playing a very consistent shortstop, committing only 6 errors in 26 games despite the hard Florida infields and the mid-day sun. He looks like an A+ prospect.

Mark McRoberts: like all of the Phils’ catching prospects, he’s got an achilles heel, a low batting average, but he leads the GCL Phils in HR’s, and is patient at the plate.

Antonio (Tony) Cancio: finally starting to hit, but is not showing the expected power yet. The 19-year-old first baseman is repeating GCL, but that’s not uncommon for American HS players, and power hitters are traditionally slower to develop out of HS.

Entire GCL pitching staff: they all pitch too few innings to get a clear picture of their potential, and predicting their potential is complicated by the pitcher’s backgrounds (the Latin players having often played professionally for one or two previous years overseas, the college players and HS players being mixed...). The best of the lot seem to be Vinny DeChristofaro with a 1.65 ERA, Carl Dawson 31 K’s and 4 BB’s in 31 IP’s (but he’s a college guy, so the numbers might be misleading), Ezequiel Astacio, who has posted the best numbers of the trio of Latin starters. Cabrera has been wild (but is andyb's favorite, and he's been right before) and Arteaga is giving up more than a hit per IP. Relief pitchers are anyone’s guess at this point.

Danny Gonzalez--started the season committing an error per game playing SS at Batavia, but has really settled down over the last 20 games. He shows some pop with his bat, and he’s a HS draftee in a predominantly college league, so his moderate BA and OPS can be excused. [color=red]Fielding is receiving rave reviews in Spring Training 2002 after looking great in the FIL.[/color]

Ryan Howard--has shown power and patience, but it’s too early to tell much more. He had a 5 for 5 game this week, and his OPS is .874 after his first 26 games.

Rod Perry--low average, but good defense in CF and patience at the plate. He’s a great athlete with limited baseball experience, so he might develop later than most college players.

GG Sato--the Japanese college catcher has shown power at the plate, but is not refined defensively and is over-agressive offensively at times.

I don’t really like any of the Batavia starting pitchers except Il Kim and Seung Lee--Kim had a brilliant game this week and is starting to get some strikeouts, which combine well with his excellent control to give him a 4.6 K:BB ratio. Lee has just started to pitch after undergoing back surgery and reporting out-of-shape. Relievers Ryan Hutchison (0.47 ERA) and Nick Glaser (7:1 K:BB ratio) have been impressive.

Reasons to hope (still):

Mike Wilson--Batavia starter not back to where he was before surgery yet.

Andres Silvera--great offensive 2B last year in the GCL, slumping at Batavia this summer.

Deudis Duran--good offensive stats, but the 2B is repeating the GCL.

Anyelo Brito--good glove, no offense from the GCL SS.

Bryan Hansen--too soon to tell anything about the late-signing HS power hitting 1B at GCL.